Statistical Evaluation of Earthquake Occurrance Data using Point Process Techniques

This project focuses on space-time marked point process models for California seismicity, such as the widely-used Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models developed by Yosihiko Ogata. Our aim is to develop methods for evaluating the fit of such models to data, and to suggest improvements and refinements to the models currently in use. In particular, detailed data on seismic moment tensors have been available for most earthquakes observed in California for several years, yet other than the scalar seismic moment, which is a crude summary essentially ignoring all directional information in the tensor, the moment tensor is typically not used in ETAS models. We are exploring ways of incorporating this potentially crucial information in order to improve models and forecasts of future seismicity.